NZβs property market remained in a holding pattern to a large degree in June, with national median values rising by a modest 0.2% on the Cotality Home Value Index β which was a step forward, but only enough to offset two previous falls of 0.1% apiece in April and May.
The modest rise in June brought the national median value to $815,389, still 16.1% below the January 2022 peak, but up by 1.1% since September last year and 0.6% over 2025 to date.
Results continue to vary across the country
Across the main centres, June saw either flat or slightly upwards movements.
- Auckland and Wellington remained stable
- Christchurch and Tauranga both rose by 0.6%
- Hamilton and Dunedin posted smaller gains of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
Outside the main centres, Juneβs results were varied yet again.
- Rotorua fell by 0.7%
- Modest declines were also seen in Gisborne, Whanganui, and Hastings.
- On the flip side, Palmerston North, Invercargill, Queenstown, and Whangarei all posted gains of at least 0.4%.
Conflicting forces remain in place
If you consider the wider macroeconomic picture, itβs not surprising that the property value results remain mixed. On one hand, lower mortgage rates are providing some relief to borrowers, whether theyβre in Whangarei or Winton.
But on the other hand, property sales volumes have only just returned to βnormalβ, so there hasnβt been much of a dent made in the overhang of listings on the market yet. In addition, the economy and labour market story remains subdued, and this will be restraining housing too. Even for people who have kept their job, reduced employment security is a key concern for many.
Itβs also worth noting the restrictive effects of debt to income ratios. Thereβs little evidence yet that DTIs are directly affecting mortgage activity too much, but they are still just lurking in the background, becoming a growing part of lending discussions at least.
βBadβ for some, great for others
Of course, while some people will be disappointed by the lack of capital growth at present, others are taking advantage of the opportunities. For example, first home buyers continue to account for more than 25% of property purchases across NZ, well above their βnormalβ share of 21-22%. Smaller investors are also showing signs of a comeback, as lower mortgage rates and restored interest deductibility reduce the required cashflow top-ups on a rental property purchase.
βCautionβ remains a key word
Looking ahead, with buyers still holding the advantage and economic sentiment subdued, itβs unlikely that flat housing market conditions will shift dramatically in the short term. Given that national values have risen by less than 1% in the first half of 2025, a modest calendar year gain of 2β3% now seems the most realistic outcome.
Weβd also be careful of casually assuming that as existing mortgage holders reprice all of their loans down to sub-5% interest rates (from an average of about 6% now) that thereβll suddenly be a boost to spending or the housing market. After all, some of that extra cash might be saved, or mortgage repayments kept the same but loan terms shortened.
If youβd like to dive deeper into how property values are shifting in your area,Β CLICK HEREΒ to access the latest Cotality House Price Index (HPI).
At The Mortgage Supply Co, weβre here to guide you every step of the way, whether you buying, selling, or refinancing. Reach out to our team today to discuss your unique situation and how we can support you in navigating the ever-changing property market!
