The CoreLogic Home Value Index for March showed that national median property values rose by 0.5%, following a 0.4% lift in February and a flat result for January. The latest increase was the strongest since January last year (also 0.5%), confirming that the market is entering its next phase of growth. The median property value now stands at $812,195, the highest since June 2024, although still down by 16.3% from the January 2022 peak.
How the Main Centres Are Tracking
- Auckland: Up 0.6%
- Wellington: Up 0.3%
- Christchurch: Up 0.8%
- Hamilton: Up 0.9%
- Dunedin: Down 0.1%
- Tauranga: Flat
Those were the sixth consecutive monthly rises in values for both Hamilton and Christchurch, signalling that these areas are rebounding first and most strongly. In Hamilton’s case, the strong performance of agriculture may well be feeding into a bit more economic buoyancy and rising confidence in the housing market. For Christchurch, the drivers are probably fairly similar but also supported by inwards migration to the city from other parts of NZ.
March also saw an emerging upturn across nearly all key provincial markets.
- Whanganui: Up 0.8%
- Whangarei & Rotorua: Up 0.5%
- Napier, Palmerston North, Queenstown: Up 0.1%
- Invercargill & New Plymouth: Flat
- Nelson: Down 0.1%
Each key regional area has recorded growth over the first three months of 2025 as a whole, except for Nelson.
What’s Driving the Rebound?
The recent rise in property values can be attributed to lower interest rates and improved affordability following previous declines in house prices. Granted, the falls in mortgage rates since roughly the middle of last year have taken some time to impact house prices – partly because the weak economic environment has still been weighing on households’ confidence and also because existing borrowers on higher fixed interest rates from a few years ago have had to wait for their debt repayments to drop. But the effects of lower mortgage rates that were always likely to feed through eventually now seem to have arrived.
What Could Hold Back Growth?
Of course, it’s not all one-way traffic for the housing market (and sellers) from here on. After all, the abundance of listings that are sitting available mean buyers still generally have the upper hand when it comes to price negotiations. In addition, the economy and labour market (while improving) don’t seem likely to roar back to normal overnight.
And then there’s the restraining influence of debt to income ratio caps for mortgage lending to consider too – in reality, they’re not a serious influence across the board right now, although anecdotal evidence nevertheless suggests that DTIs are at least becoming a more significant hurdle for a few more people.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, property values may remain variable month-to-month and across regions in the short to medium term. A modest upturn in national values of around 5% this year would be subdued by past standards and might be disappointing for some people. But as a country we don’t get materially wealthier by trading houses amongst ourselves and a period of flatter values will be happily accepted by many others.
If you’d like to dive deeper into how property values are shifting in your area, CLICK HERE to access the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI).
At The Mortgage Supply Co, we’re here to guide you every step of the way, whether you buying, selling, or refinancing. Reach out to our team today to discuss your unique situation and how we can support you in navigating the ever-changing property market!
