The Cotality Home Value Index shows that property values across New Zealand edged up by 0.1% in April, the third monthly rise in a row – after 0.1% in March and 0.4% in February. The national median value now stands at $809,101, which is 0.6% higher than three months ago in January, albeit still 16.8% below the peak from January 2022 ($972,643).
Across the main centres:
- Dunedin rose by 0.8%
- Christchurch and Tauranga both seeing a 0.4% increase
- Hamilton’s increased by 0.3%
- Wellington and Auckland both remained more sluggish, with minor -0.1% fall
Outside the main centre, most of the next tier of cities and towns saw values tick up in April,
- Whangarei +0.9%
- Gisborne +0.6%
- Palmerston North, Napier, Nelson and Whanganui +0.2%
- Rotorua + 0.3%
- Invercargill + 0.5%
If you would like a full breakdown of the Home Value index in your region, or city, click HERE
Let’s not get carried away
In light of the soft start to the year for property sales activity and of course the breakout of the conflict in Iran, it’s perhaps a little surprising that values have continued to eke out increases at a national level in recent months.
That being said, the wider context is important. The increase since January remains small and we’ve been here before too. Indeed, small price upturns at the start of both 2024 and 2025 eventually went into reverse, as financing pressures and a weak economy asserted their effects.
As things stand now, a repeat of that pattern would be no surprise at all. With Iran-related uncertainty very high, inflation starting to flow through the system, the economy showing cracks, and mortgage rates rising, the coming months could remain challenging for sales and house prices.
But weak prices are great for some
Of course, while some people would be disappointed with that prognosis – namely those trying to sell a house for a strong price – others will be less concerned. Indeed, first home buyers continue to take advantage of favourable conditions, including sluggish prices, access to KiwiSaver for at least part of their deposit, and also plenty of low deposit (high LVR) finance available from the banks.
‘Mum and Dad’ investors have also made a measured comeback lately, helped by those same subdued house prices and reduced mortgage rates compared to 2024 – hence much lower cashflow top-ups from other income too. That being said, some investors have their eyes firmly on November’s election and the possibility of a capital gains tax next year.
A sluggish outlook ahead
The Reserve Bank shapes as a key player in the coming months and given their concerns about ‘second round’ price effects (such as higher inflation expectations and rising wage demands), an OCR rise now seems likely as soon as July or September. Mortgage rates have already risen anyway.
In the meantime, economic indicators are sliding. All in all, the housing market has lifted a little to start the year, but winter could easily see a sideways or downwards trajectory for prices.
At The Mortgage Supply Co, we’re here to guide you every step of the way, whether you buying, selling, or refinancing. Reach out to our team today to discuss your unique situation and how we can support you in navigating the ever-changing property market!
